Constancy’s Julian Timmer mentioned Bitcoin could have accomplished one other halving in each value and time, putting assist within the $65,000 to $75,000 zone.
Whereas sharing the “Bitcoin Analogs” chart, Constancy’s Director of World Macro wrote:
“Whereas I stay bullish on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin could also be previous one other four-year halving cycle, each in value and time.”
He added that October’s excessive close to $125,000 is according to a historic bull market, and that 2026 might doubtlessly be a “year-long break” as “Bitcoin’s winter has lasted a couple of yr.”
Bitcoin lookalikes trace at late-cycle cooling part as time catches up with value
This chart breaks down Bitcoin’s historical past into bullish (inexperienced blocks) and drawdown (pink blocks) regimes, then overlays the “prime analogs” of earlier cycles (notably 2013 and 2017) to map how late-cycle rallies are likely to roll into cooling intervals.
Its central message is that the time issue is consistent with the value issue.
Timmer’s judgment is tied to each the uptrend interval and the height degree, as earlier peaks had been concentrated within the prime window, adopted by a retracement part that would final almost a yr.
This configuration overlaps with the late-cycle framework demonstrated in bookmydollar’s cycle clock evaluation. The framework tracked the 2025 peak window by making use of prior halving-to-peak timing (roughly 526 days after the 2016 halving and roughly 546 days after the 2020 halving).
In that mapping, Bitcoin’s October 6 print value was close to $126,200, arriving throughout the projected window.
The follow-through and broader commerce then stalled, with main assist round $108,000.
In current tapes, we examined whether or not the post-peak part is transitioning right into a deeper reset.
The liquidity and positioning lead famous that Bitcoin fell to round $99,075 on November 4th, and described the transfer as a structural reset amid tight liquidity and a weak urge for food to remain leveraged lengthy.
The report quotes CheckOnChain estimating that there will likely be about $34 billion in sell-side stress every month as older cash return to exchanges and demand slows.
It additionally highlighted the focus of the associated fee base, with about 63% of invested capital valued at $95,000 or extra, with degree merchants monitoring holder actions and suggestions loops from pressured gross sales.
Indicators of a post-peak reset and the way extreme it might get
Mr. Timmer’s $65,000 to $75,000 band additionally falls throughout the drawdown calculation proven in bookmydollar’s naked band mannequin.
The framework notes that earlier bear markets have lasted 12 to 18 months, with peak-to-trough declines of about 57% in 2018 and 76% in 2014.
They usually argue that ETFs and deeper derivatives might change the trajectory, leaving room for important draw back.
Utilizing a 35% to 55% drawdown band from $126,272 offers us a trough zone round $82,000 to $57,000, which is a bracket that features a timmer assist zone and is tied to a clear vary slightly than a single goal goal.
The identical calculation implies a decrease interval that might be reached by late 2026 to early 2027 if the reset follows historic interval bands.
| 2026 situation | the way it seems | value vary | what to see |
|---|---|---|---|
| “Off 12 months” Winter (Timer) | Vary buying and selling, excessive value decline, core of liquidation | $75,000 to $65,000 (inside drawdown band of ~$82,000 to $57,000) | ETF flows fluctuate from unfavorable to unfavorable, repeated assist checks, tight liquidity |
| shallow reset | Drawdown and unstable base constructing | Higher half of ~$82,000-$57,000 band, trending towards mid-$60,000 | Outflows stabilize, actual yields ease, pressured sellers decline |
| Tail threat deleveraging | The story of stress takes maintain and also you instantly calm down. | Under the band is a $49,000 printout with a abstract of the draw back paper | Sustained demand weak spot, elevated international change inflows, and diminished threat urge for food |
| cycle extension | Re-acceleration after recovering a damaged degree | Exceeds earlier vary and challenges post-ATH ceiling | Demand reversal as a result of movement and breakout conduct, weakening promoting stress |
The most important query is whether or not the four-year template stays a viable baseline, or whether or not the market construction is diluting it.
In a touch upon the cycle’s weakening affect, Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan argued that ETFs, broader institutional entry, and regulatory advances have diminished the boom-and-bust mechanisms that when outlined the cycle.
He expects ETF-led adoption to play out over time, a view that conflicts with the thought of designating 2026 as an “off yr.”
Why 2026 Macro Background Might Flip ETF Flows into Bitcoin’s Dominant Value Driver
Even when cycle timing weakens, macro circumstances can nonetheless form the trail as they affect ETF movement conduct.
In its 2026 macro outlook, Financial institution of America’s base situation of a 2.4% U.S. actual GDP development fee in 2026 and an easing of the rate of interest system towards the mid-3% vary by the top of 2026 are cited as being behind the power to maintain actual yields barely optimistic.
The identical article famous that Bitcoin ETFs can fluctuate by greater than $1 billion in a single day, making ETF flows the first transmission channel for yields and a shift towards spot demand for the greenback.
Looking forward to 2026, near-term decision-making factors will heart on the place holder and movement assist meet.
The $95,000 value base shelf kinds the preliminary stress take a look at framework for positioning, whereas the $76,000 assist map sits close to the highest of Timmer’s band and contained in the broader drawdown bracket.
Timmer’s analog framework is that if the final part ends in each value and time, the following part will likely be a winter lasting a couple of yr, with assist centered within the $65,000-75,000 vary.