Bitcoin Provide Information: Value-Primarily based Bands, Miner Stress, and ETF Move Alerts
Bitcoin is presently buying and selling outdoors of the $93,000 to $110,000 value base vary that Glassnode units as its “overhead provide” zone.
On this setup, the subsequent quarter’s provide story is mirrored in miner money flows and holder habits reasonably than issuance schedules. Based on Glassnode’s Week On-chain W02 2026, the associated fee foundation for short-term holders (STH) is near $98,300.
This stage is usually the reference level for latest consumers to resolve whether or not so as to add publicity or allocate to the rebound.
On the identical time, the mining market is pricing in a much less worthwhile regime.
Based on the hash fee index abstract dated January 26, 2026, the six-month hash value ahead curve is roughly $33.25 (roughly 0.00041 BTC) per PH/second per day, which is beneath the break-even zone ($39.50) for a lot of miners, relying on working prices and machine sort.
Associated bookmydollar context: Miner stress narratives usually depend on the identical profitability/issue loop defined in that Bitcoin’s hashrate continues to say no as a result of hovering costs cannot persuade miners to show their machines again on.
A further variable this quarter is whether or not the ETF’s flows act as a sink for tradable provide or a launch valve.
Internet outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs had been recorded at $681 million within the first full buying and selling week of 2026, with risk-off settings linked to rate of interest forecasts and macro information headlines, in response to information from SoSoValue. Internet flows final week amounted to damaging $1.3 billion, the worst week since Could 2025.
For extra context within the bookmydollar report on the identical early 2026 circulate regime, see “3-Yr Path Clear for Bitcoin to Rise Above $126,000, however Brutal $1.3 Billion Outflow Modifications The whole lot At this time.”
Necessary factors
- The Bitcoin issuance schedule is mounted by the protocol, with a cap of 21 million and rewards halved each 210,000 blocks. Based on Blockchain.com’s provide chart, short-term “provide shocks” have a tendency to return from tradable float and incentives.
- Glassnode’s present overhead provide is between $93,000 and $110,000, and STH’s value base is roughly $98,300. Based on Glassnode W02 2026, this vary can be a requirement absorption check for the present quarter.
- Hashrate and issue have already adjusted to emphasize, with the 7-day SMA hashrate on January twenty second shifting from 1,003 EH/s to 966 EH/s and issue dropping 3.28% to 141.67T, in response to Hashrate Index (January 26, 2026). For background, see Bitcoin hashrate hits new excessive of 943 EH/s as issue adjusts downward by 0.45%.
- Mining forwards suggest roughly $39.50/PH/s per day over six months, persevering with to give attention to miners’ monetary administration and shutdown dangers. Based on the hashrate index, the “break-even level” depends upon working prices and fleet effectivity.
- After a horrible month to start out the yr with $1 billion in internet outflows, the route of ETF flows stays a variable.
who is that this for
- Lengthy-term allocator that tracks cohort provide, cost-based bands, and maturity dynamics
- Swing merchants will give attention to STH value base and oblique provide response
- Institutional desk that screens ETF circulate regime and miner-driven liquidity
- Mining and infrastructure operators managing hash value publicity and issue timing
Highlights of this quarter
- Value pattern round STH value base round $98,300 regains place inside $93,000-110,000 overhead band (Glassnode W02 2026)
- The 6-month hash value forecast recovers to close $39.50/PH/sec/day and the spot hash value diverges from the curve (hashrate index).
- The frequency of issue changes since January twenty second has decreased by 3.28% to 141.67T (hashrate index).
- Venue circulate combine (Glassnode W02 2026), together with Glassnode notice that Binance and basic trade flows have shifted to a buy-dominated regime whereas promoting stress on Coinbase has eased (Glassnode W02 2026)
- The Weekly Spot Bitcoin ETF noticed internet inflows after $1.3 billion in outflows final week.
Issuance fundamentals + half-life (mounted and variable)
Bitcoin’s complete provide chain is decided by the protocol layer, with a most of 21 million BTC, and the block subsidy is halved each 210,000 blocks.
This constraint is necessary for long-term analysis and quarterly issuance calculations. New provides will come on a schedule that the market can mannequin.
The extra urgent situation for subsequent quarter is the quantity of provide accessible out there.
This implies stock that may attain spot venues by way of miner gross sales, holder distribution, ETF creation or redemption. “Provide shocks” usually happen right here as a result of the issuance curve is understood whereas the liquidity willpower is conditional.
Most quarter-scale volatility maps to seconds.
Miner economics and promoting stress (why hash value is a stay provide lever)
Mining acts as an elastic provide lever, because the sale of BTC by miners is without doubt one of the few structural sources of standard distribution.
That resilience confirmed itself in late January. Hashrate Index reported that on January 22, the 7-day SMA hashrate decreased from 1,003 EH/s to 966 EH/s, and the community issue adjusted by 3.28% to 141.67T.
Futures markets additionally imply that miners’ margins are constrained.
The identical abstract reviews that Hashprice Ahead Curve pricing will common round $33.25 per PH/sec per day over the subsequent six months. Hashrate Index individually explains that for a lot of miners, the close to break-even level is $39-40/PH/sec per day, however emphasizes that this varies relying on working prices and machine mannequin.
This quarter’s forward-looking body makes use of three conditional paths primarily based on these information factors.
- Grind near breakeven: If the hash value recovers to across the ahead implied ~$33.25/PH/sec/day, high-cost fleets will face a more durable monetary scenario.
- Based on Hashrate Index, this might result in periodic hashrate declines or short-term spot promoting to fund administration.
- Reduction from hardship: If the hashrate drops additional, the next lower in issue might enhance the income per hash unit even when the BTC value stays flat.
- This can scale back pressured margin promoting, as proven by the January 22 adjustment.
- Macro-driven compression: If a broader risk-off motion weighs on BTC costs whereas hash costs are close to break-even, closures might speed up.
- This ends in the identical issue mitigation loop with unsure timing.
Miners’ stability sheet insurance policies can change realized promoting stress inside 1 / 4.
Associated bookmydollar Miner Stress Framing: Bitcoin faces potential miner capitulation as hashrate continues to say no.
Lengthy-term holders and short-term holders (the place oblique provide really comes from)
Glassnode’s present map constructions provide overhang as a cost-based band reasonably than a single value.
Week On-chain W02 2026 defined that the market is a check provide starting from roughly $93,000 to $110,000, with an STH value foundation of $98,300.
That framework is necessary this quarter because it defines the place earlier consumers will reap the benefits of the rally to exit.
It additionally defines the place new demand should take up stock to keep away from new distribution.
Holder habits softened in comparison with late 2025 with out turning to accumulation.
Based on Glassnode, long-term holders (LTH) provide continues to pattern downward, however the fee of decline has slowed considerably in comparison with the distribution seen by way of the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Moreover, LTH’s internet realized revenue was near 12.8 million BTC per week, which is down from the cycle peak of over 100,000 BTC per week.
The regime change situation recognized by Glassnode for a extra sturdy rally is a change in mature provide exceeding LTH spending.
If this occurs, the availability of LTH will additional enhance. On a quarterly foundation, the overhead band can solely clear if promoting stress slows sooner than new or returning demand.
When readers examine dashboards, one necessary technical notice is necessary.
Glassnode’s provide endpoint doesn’t deal with 155 days as a tough cutoff. That cohort makes use of logistic weighting centered at 155 days and with a transition width of 10 days.
Widespread fable (offering a narrative that’s not topic to analysis)
- Delusion: A halving instantly runs out of tradable provide. Whereas issuance modifications are identified on a block-by-block foundation, quarter-scale provide pressures are sometimes pushed by miner profitability and holder allocation selections.
- Delusion: 155 days is a tough boundary for LTH classification. Glassnode’s provide cohort makes use of logistic weighting centered at 155 days with a transition width of 10 days, which influences interpretation round inflection factors.
- Delusion: Miner give up is a single occasion. The hashrate and issue system might step by step decline after which normalize profitability per unit hash, as seen within the issue decline on January twenty second because the hashrate declines.
Metrics Dashboard (minimal set to observe for the subsequent 6 months)
| space | metric | Present reference from supply | Why is that this quarter necessary? | sauce |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| protocol | Provide cap and halving cadence | As much as 21M provide, halved each 210,000 blocks | Anchoring issuance calculations and shifting focus to tradable float | Blockchain.com |
| mining | Hashrate (7-day SMA) | 1,003 EH/s ~ 966 EH/s (late January 2026) | Proxies for shutdown threat and miner earnings stress | Hashrate Index (January 26, 2026) |
| mining | Issue adjustment | 141.67T at -3.28% on January 22, 2026 | Mechanical reduction valve for minor margin | Hashrate Index (January 26, 2026) |
| mining | Hash value ahead curve (6 months) | ~$33.25/PH/sec/day | Framing the potential of Treasury stress and compelled gross sales | Hashrate Index (February 3, 2026) |
| holder | overhead provide band | ~$93,000 to $110,000 | Outline the place rallies may be transformed into promote flows on an upfront value foundation | Glass Node W02 2026 |
| holder | STH value base | ~$983,000 | Confidence threshold for latest consumers near overhead provide | Glass Node W02 2026 |
| holder | LTH supply pacing | As much as 12.8,000 BTC internet realized revenue per week, slower than earlier peak | Observe whether or not the distribution is weakening or gaining momentum once more | Glass Node W02 2026 |
| liquidity | Benefits of venue circulate | Binance and Combination Move are shopping for favourites, Coinbase promoting stress is easing | Absorption capability throughout overhead provide depends upon wiring | Glass Node W02 2026 |
| ETF | weekly internet circulate | -$1 billion within the first month of 2026 | Internet outflows can carry stock again to the market by way of redemptions | SoSoValue by report |
Pink flags and overrides
- Within the absence of a dataset for the present date, a declare that the trade stability has “lately decreased by X%” must be handled as invalid.
- The “break-even hash value” has to keep up operational prices and {hardware} circumstances, because the hash fee index is about as $39-40/PH/sec/day as near break-even for a lot of miners, relying on these inputs.
Motion guidelines, monitoring routine
- Weekly: For comparability, we use the report linked to SoSoValue to document the signal and magnitude of ETF internet flows because the -$681 million outflow week.
- Every issue epoch: We observe whether or not the issue continues to lower after the three.28% discount on January twenty second and examine it to the hashrate route within the miner stress context.
- Every day/Rolling: We examine the spot hash value to the 6-month ahead common round $33.25/PH/s/day to find out whether or not miners face tightening or easing.
- System verify: We observe whether or not LTH provide continues to say no or enhance in internet phrases below Glassnode’s “maturity exceeds spending” circumstances.
- Pricing context: These ranges are mapped primarily based on STH and overhead provide prices within the present Glassnode framing, so look ahead to market reactions round $98,300 and inside $93,000 to $110,000.
These inputs have to be tied to a set Bitcoin issuance schedule.