- BTC traded at $65,581, MACD crossed bullish, ETF inflows returned for third time this month on June sixteenth
- Galaxy Digital is concentrating on a backside of $40,000 to $46,000, whereas Customary Chartered says it can backside at $59,000 and attain $100,000 by year-end.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan argues that the underside query is fallacious and says BTC is a sizzling purchase except the highest is in.
Bitcoin is buying and selling at $65,581 as of June 17, above the 0.5 Fibonacci degree at $66,782 because the spot ETF recorded its third influx day this month and three of probably the most revered analysis groups within the cryptocurrency area issued conflicting backside calls in the identical week.
BTC each day chart: MACD bullish cross at 0.382 Fibonacci value
The each day chart exhibits BTC recovering from its June low of $59,098 right into a dense Fibonacci cluster. Value is presently positioned between the 0.382 degree at $64,968 and the 0.5 degree at $66,782, with the 20 EMA at $66,496 performing as quick overhead resistance.
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MACD is presently an important sign on the chart. The road has crossed from deep unfavorable territory to bullish territory, and the histogram has proven inexperienced bars for 3 consecutive periods. The final time this cross occurred from this depth was after the February 2026 low, previous to the rally in direction of $82,000. If the value can regain the 20 EMA, the following goal is $68,595 on the 0.618 Fibonacci degree.
- Resistance: $66,496 (20 EMA), $68,595 (0.618 Fib), $70,285 (50 EMA)
- Help: $64,968 (0.382 Fib), $62,725 (0.236 Fib)
The three analysis firms have totally different opinions on elementary factors, however they agree on one level.
Galaxy Digital analyzed the 13 situations which have traditionally existed for every of Bitcoin’s bottoms and located that solely 4 have been totally met. Of their base case, the underside value is between $40,000 and $46,000. NYDIG takes an analogous multi-indicator strategy and concludes that whereas the present pullback displays the traits of a cyclical low, it lacks an entire capitulation of earlier main troughs, though it acknowledges that institutional demand could imply a shallowing cycle.
Customary Chartered disagrees, with a ground value of $59,000 and a goal of $100,000 by the tip of the yr. The report identified that the momentum behind the decision of the settlement with Iran and the sale of ETFs associated to SpaceX’s IPO is now unstoppable.
Three totally different conclusions. Nonetheless, all three agree that this yr would be the backside, and all three agree that BTC is nearer to the underside than the highest, and that the bull cycle will proceed as soon as once more. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan cuts by means of this debate with only one line. The phrases “The query on the backside is wrong.” He argues that except the highest is in, Bitcoin is a purchase.
Benjamin Cowen: The cycle is on monitor
Analyst Benjamin Cowen identified that BTC has made enjoyable of either side at each main juncture on this cycle. The rally from $80,000 to $98,000 in late 2025 triggered a supercycle name earlier than BTC hit a brand new cycle low in February 2026.
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A restoration from $60,000 to $82,000 from February to Could 2026, earlier than setting new lows in June, as soon as once more received the bears fallacious. Cowen’s studying is that the cycle follows a typical mid-year sample, with solely emotion altering outcomes for particular person buyers.
BTC ETF inflows for the third time this month
June sixteenth noticed web inflows of $10.06 million, marking the third constructive session this month, following June 4th’s $3.05 million and June twelfth’s $85.85 million.
BlackRock’s IBIT led the way in which with $16.35 million, adopted by Constancy, which added $4.28 million, and Morgan Stanley, which contributed $1.88 million. Grayscale’s GBTC was the one vital outflow at $16.81 million. Cumulative web inflows reached $53.57 billion, and whole web belongings recovered to $82.06 billion.
BTC derivatives: market quiet earlier than FOMC
Quantity decreased by 24.31% to $47.01 billion, and open curiosity decreased by 1.35% to $48.52 billion. Each declines point out closing out of positions forward of the FOMC determination moderately than a wager on a brand new path. Choices quantity decreased by 47.53% to $2.73 billion, however choice OI elevated by 1.45% to $36.2 billion. A protracted/quick ratio of 1.008 is successfully impartial.
In 24 hours, lengthy positions of $33.47 million have been liquidated in opposition to quick positions of $15.03 million. The longs absorbed extra ache, however the hole narrowed considerably from the dynamics of final week’s quick squeeze.
Bitcoin value prediction for June 18, 2026
- Upside: Each day shut above the 20 EMA of $66,496 and 0.5 Fibonacci of $66,782 with a goal of $68,595. Continued ETF inflows and a impartial or dovish FOMC outcome will speed up the transfer in direction of $70,285.
- Draw back: Rejected at $66,496 and shutting beneath $64,968 opens the trail to $62,725 once more. A hawkish shock from the FOMC at this time will validate the Galaxy’s base case timeline of $40,000 to $46,000.
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