- Arthur Hayes bought over 1,939 ETH value roughly $3.72 million in an OTC transaction on July 17, reversing a loss-making sale of 6,000 ETH in late June.
- ETH broke above the downtrend line from February, however has retreated in direction of the 50-day EMA as leveraged longs absorbed $84.93 million in liquidations.
- Analyst fly_welinkBTC argues that ETH occupies a central place in all three narratives more likely to drive the subsequent bull market: tokenized equities, stablecoins, and AI.
- Japan’s Nikkei Inventory Common fell 5% on Friday as chip shares fell, and ETH fell twice as a lot as Bitcoin on the day.
Ethereum traded 1.89% decrease at $1,827.95 on July 17, regaining positive aspects after breaking above the downtrend line that had restricted any restoration makes an attempt since February. There was a pullback, with open curiosity down 5.99% and long-term liquidations reaching $84.93 million in 24 hours, indicating that leveraged merchants are being shaken out somewhat than sellers driving pattern reversals.
ETH Worth In the present day: Trendline Break Meets First Actual Check
The every day chart exhibits that ETH has damaged out of the downtrend line that has outlined a bearish pattern since February, with the worth at the moment retreating in direction of the 50-day EMA of $1,809.16 and 20-day EMA of $1,783.51. These two ranges type the fast help cluster that bulls want to carry for the breakout to stay legitimate. A break under each calls into query the break of the trendline.
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The supertrend indicator at $1,670.43 stays bullish under worth, marking the primary trend-following sign to show in favor of ETH in current months. The 100-day EMA at $1,940.26 is the place the rally stalled and stays a significant ceiling if this degree rises once more. The 200-day EMA of $2,209.58 is nicely above the long-term goal if momentum returns. The chart exhibits a horizontal help band close to $1,500, marking the June backside that supported the restoration.
ETH help and resistance ranges — July 17, 2026
- Assist is on the 50-day EMA at $1,809.16 and the 20-day EMA at $1,783.51.
- Resistance on the 100-day EMA, the place the rally beforehand stalled, is $1,940.26
- Main ground at $1,500 help zone from June lows
- Prolonged resistance on the 200-day EMA at $2,209.58
ETH Derivatives Knowledge: Leveraged Longs Flush However Pattern Does Not Reverse
On-chain derivatives information tells a extra nuanced story than the headline worth drop suggests. Quantity elevated by 3.68% to $43.09 billion, whereas open curiosity decreased by 5.99% to $25.94 billion. Merchants are deciphering this mixture as a place exit somewhat than a brand new bearish place. When open curiosity decreases as costs fall, current longs are liquidated somewhat than new shorts being piled up.
Liquidation information helps this studying. In 24 hours, lengthy positions absorbed $84.93 million as a consequence of liquidations, whereas brief positions absorbed solely $12.77 million. The long-to-short liquidation ratio of 6.6:1 signifies that the over-leveraged lengthy aspect is being washed away, somewhat than the aggressive brief promoting that sometimes accompanies a real pattern reversal.
| metric | worth | interpretation |
| High Dealer Lengthy/Brief (Account) | 1.96 | An enormous participant is leaning huge and lengthy. |
| High merchants lengthy/brief (positions) | 1.44 | Nonetheless internet lengthy in place sizing |
| Retail lengthy/brief (24 hours) | 0.9384 | Slight brief bias amongst small merchants |
| Lengthy-term clearing (24 hours) | $84.93 million | Leveraged longs are flushed out |
| Brief-term clearing (24 hours) | $12.77 million | Brief sellers are largely unaffected |
The disconnect between large-scale merchants and particular person merchants is important. Binance’s institutional-sized accounts preserve an extended/brief ratio of 1.96, whereas retail-sized merchants are barely internet brief. This “good cash lengthy, retail brief” break up is commonly interpreted as a contrarian sign encouraging additional upside.
Arthur Hayes reverses ETH place inside 3 weeks
On-chain information tracked by Onchain Lens exhibits that Arthur Hayes despatched 1.25 million USDC to Galaxy Digital, obtained 646 ETH inside minutes, after which despatched one other 1.25 million USDC to FalconX in what seems to be a second OTC transaction.
Subsequent on-chain purchases purchased 1,293 ETH, bringing his every day whole to over 1,939 ETH, for a mixed whole of roughly $3.72 million. This accumulation reversed a place he exited in late June, when he bought 6,000 ETH for an estimated lack of $606,000, alongside exits from Worldcoin, ZCash, NEAR, and HyperLiquid.
Why do analysts assume ETH will outperform BTC within the subsequent cycle?
Crypto analyst fly_welinkBTC introduced a structural case for ETH’s outperformance, highlighting three macro tales anticipated to drive the subsequent bull market: tokenized real-world property, stablecoin infrastructure, and its distinctive place within the convergence of AI and blockchain.
Three ETH demand tales
| story | ETH’s place | information factors |
| Tokenized shares/RWA | dominant chain | Hosts over 35% of the tokenized inventory market |
| Stablecoins and funds | village layer | >50% of on-chain stablecoin provide |
| AI agent transactions | infrastructure requirements | ERC-8183 targets AI-to-AI funds |
The just lately introduced ERC-8183 normal targets trusted transactions between autonomous AI brokers working on-chain, positioning Ethereum as the popular cost layer for machine-to-machine worth transfers as AI agent networks increase in direction of real-world financial exercise.
Bitcoin’s two essential demand drivers, spot ETF inflows and company treasury accumulation, have each slowed considerably in contrast, leaving Bitcoin missing a transparent new progress engine for the approaching cycle.
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Analysts’ rivalry is just not that Bitcoin will fail fully, however that Ethereum is a extra energetic demand catalyst competing for a similar pool of institutional capital.
On Friday, ETH fell twice as a lot as Bitcoin as chip shares crashed.
On July 17, the sharp decline in Asian semiconductor shares spilled over into cryptocurrencies, with Japan’s Nikkei inventory common dropping 5% in its worst session since March, and Taiwanese semiconductors going through their largest single-day decline since April 2025.
Regardless of the US Spot Ether ETF gathering almost $97 million within the first three days of the week, ETH fell 4% to $1,850, double Bitcoin’s 2% decline to $63,400. ETH, then again, is the one main asset that’s barely nonetheless within the inexperienced within the 7-day window, whereas the Worry and Greed Index is in excessive concern territory at 25.
Ethereum worth prediction: upside and draw back targets
- Upside Case: ETH holds the 50-day EMA at $1,809.16, trendline breaks are confirmed with every day closes above it, and haze-style accumulation generates additional institutional curiosity in direction of the 100-day EMA at $1,940.26.
- Draw back Case: The 50-day and 20-day EMAs each fail, ETH drops under the damaged trendline, and a leveraged lengthy flash stretches in direction of the supertrend help at $1,670.43 as profit-taking accelerates.
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