Julio Moreno, Head of Analysis at CryptoQuant, just lately declared that Bitcoin is in a bear market that would final till the third quarter of 2026.
he’s not alone. Bitwise’s Matt Hogan and a rising refrain of organizations have been utilizing the label “bear” extra freely than ever since early 2023.
Nevertheless, those self same analysts typically use construction to hedge. Many monetary establishments proceed to take care of or add publicity whereas acknowledging the change in authorities.
This raises a definitional drawback. If a bear market not means capitulation or exit, what does it imply?
If the well-known four-year cycle is gone, as VanEck, K33 Analysis, and 21Shares every declare of their latest experiences, how lengthy will the bear market final if the lunar calendar not applies?
What constitutes a bear market
The standard monetary definition of a bear market is a place to begin.
The U.S. Securities and Change Fee defines a bear market as a decline of 20% or extra in a broad index over at the least two months. Bitcoin cleared that threshold a couple of months in the past.
From a peak of over $126,000 in early October 2025, BTC has fallen by about 41% to about $74,000 as of February 3. In accordance with headline requirements, the case is solved.
Nevertheless, Coinbase Institutional’s analysis clearly states that the 20% threshold is “considerably arbitrary” and does not likely apply to cryptocurrencies, which may expertise 20% swings and not using a true regime change.
In actual fact, analysts make the most of a dashboard that consists of three elements: worth developments, positioning and derivatives, and demand and liquidity.
The value development is the obvious. CryptoQuant depends closely on the 365-day transferring common as a boundary marker.
Bitcoin is at the moment buying and selling beneath that stage, at round $101,448. CryptoQuant’s bull rating index, which comprehensively measures on-chain well being, scored 20 factors out of 100, which is described as extraordinarily bearish territory.
Coinbase makes use of a 200-day transferring common to establish bear markets in its historic cycle evaluation, and Bitcoin continues to stay beneath that threshold.
Positioning and derivatives present a second sign. Glassnode’s latest Week On-Chain report paperwork circumstances that improve draw back sensitivity, together with rotation for draw back safety, a bearish bias within the choices market, and a supplier gamma beneath zero.
Markets act defensively when merchants pay a premium to hedge towards additional declines somewhat than to seize upside.
Demand and liquidity present the structural context. CoinShares estimates that giant holders have offered about $29 billion of Bitcoin since October. Roughly $440 million has been drained from publicly traded digital asset merchandise for the reason that starting of the yr.
CryptoQuant and MarketWatch characterize the present regime as combining declining stablecoin liquidity with weak demand, typical components of a bear market.
The most recent international investor survey from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, performed from December 10, 2025 to January 12, 2026, discovered that 26% of establishments say the market is at the moment in a bearish part. This outcome was up from simply 2% within the earlier survey.
Nevertheless, the identical survey revealed that 62% of establishments have held or elevated their net-long publicity since October, and 70% view Bitcoin as undervalued.
This disconnect is a trademark of the 2026 bear market. It isn’t about capitulation, however about recognizing the regime whereas sustaining structural publicity.
The label “bear market” is turning into much less about who’s working away and extra about who continues to be shopping for, though market sentiment stays dire.
When will this bear market finish?
To outline the tip of a bear market, we have to be clear about what we imply by “finish.”
Probably the most rigorous strategy treats this as a regime change somewhat than a sentiment. Analysts establish three sensible triggers: a reversal of developments, a reversal of demand, and a normalization of threat urge for food.
A development restoration happens when Bitcoin recovers and maintains its long-term transferring common, akin to 200-day or 365-day, for a number of weeks.
Modulations in demand imply exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded merchandise transfer from subdued or unfavorable inflows to sustained inflows, slowing distributions to massive holders.
Normalization of threat urge for food signifies that choices bias returns to a balanced stage, decreasing the demand for draw back safety and persistently constructing leverage.
The forward-looking eventualities are categorized into three time intervals, every supported by particular analyst commentary.
The primary situation is a traditional crypto winter that lasts till mid or late 2026.
Julio Moreno recognized deeper potential paths of $70,000 in three to 6 months and $56,000 within the second half of 2026. This situation assumes that demand stays weak, flows stay unfavorable, and Bitcoin fails in repeated makes an attempt to regain its transferring common. Bear market rallies happen, however they do not final.
The second situation is a brief, shallow bear market lasting 3-6 months, characterised by risky, range-bound worth actions, earlier than circumstances enhance within the second half of 2026.
CoinShares clearly expects a constructive state of affairs within the medium time period and a risky interval of 3-6 months as whale gross sales dry up by mid-2026.
On this framework, bear markets are extra a matter of time than depth. In different phrases, the higher restrict is proscribed till demand reverses, however the decrease restrict is maintained.
The third situation treats bear markets as liquidity wave occasions somewhat than calendar-based cycles.
No matter what the halving clock says, the bear market will finish when demand and liquidity speed up once more. This maps on to CryptoQuant’s demand-driven framework and avoids determinism as a result of half-lives. We acknowledge that the previous playbook might not apply.
| situation | horizon | what’s it appears to be like like | Key triggers to observe | what would you do disable that |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| traditional winter (Moreno path) | Mid/late 2026 | A failed assembly. deeper retest | Steady assortment failures 200D/365D;weak present; Sustainable draw back hedge | Restoration + Keep Above MA and Stream turns optimistic sustainably |
| brief and shallow bear (CoinShares Move) | 3-6 months | Vary restricted chop. cap dealing with upwards | Stabilization of ETP flows. Slowdown/depletion of whale gross sales | Breakdown beneath key assist zones as a result of growing liquidation strain |
| Liquidity wave system (after 4 yr cycle) | variable | Exit when liquidity and demand adjustments, not on a calendar | International liquidity proxy, actual yield, stablecoin liquidity, demand hedging | Liquidity improves, however BTC nonetheless can’t get better lengthy MA (suggesting structural weak point) |
Is that this bear market smaller than earlier cycles?
The present drawdown of round 40% is already small in comparison with the everyday 70%+ crypto winters of earlier cycles.
Nevertheless, the draw back eventualities by a number of analysts are concentrated round $55,000 to $60,000, suggesting that if realized, the overall drawdown will strategy the mid-50% vary.
Whereas that is nonetheless beneath historic extremes, it’s vital sufficient to qualify as a bear market by any commonplace.
The market can also be more and more polarized. Whereas Bitcoin retains its structural management, the remainder of the cryptocurrency market is performing a lot worse.
Coinbase and Glassnode experiences spotlight this by way of dominance indicators and defensive positioning actions. The market in 2026 can be Ok-shaped, and a “bear market” may have an uneven affect on asset courses.
The four-year cycle is over, however what is going to change it?
Van Eck argued that in 2025, the four-year cycle will break down, making the previous technique much less dependable.
K33 Analysis has launched a report entitled “The four-year cycle is useless, lengthy reside the King” which reveals the rationale for the change of presidency.
21Shares explains that this cycle is evolving and will prolong to 5 years as liquidity waves lengthen and institutional investor participation deepens.
The choice to the four-year clock is the liquidity and move clock. This contains actual yields, international liquidity impulses, change traded fund and change traded product flows, stablecoin liquidity, and hedging demand.
CoinShares clearly frames Bitcoin’s latest turmoil by way of the connection between valuable metals and macro liquidity. Coinbase and Glassnode spotlight defensive posture in derivatives as a real-time posture indicator.
What a bear market interval means is that bear markets change into extra frequent however much less extreme. If institutional flows present a decrease certain, markets might expertise extra frequent regime contractions somewhat than survival winters.
The rally might fail till demand and liquidity enhance, however the underlying construction may forestall the form of multi-year capitulation that characterised previous cycles.
This creates a paradox. Bear markets can last more in calendar time, however they do much less harm in share phrases. Or it could finish sooner if demand adjustments earlier than the previous cycle logic predicts.
In any case, the clock that dominated Bitcoin for a decade not guidelines Bitcoin.
Checklists are extra necessary than calendars
In 2026, whether or not there can be a bear market is not going to be a single metric, however a guidelines.
Pattern breaks, demand hedging, demand and liquidity rollovers all level in the identical path. Bitcoin is in a bear market in most necessary frameworks.
When it ends is dependent upon the timing of the demand cycle somewhat than the halving calendar. CoinShares expects a pointy decline in 3-6 months. We imagine that CryptoQuant may attain additional lows within the second half of this yr.
If the administration vacillates and not using a clear decision, either side might find yourself being proper at completely different occasions.
Though the four-year cycle is over, the query of when this bear market will finish stays unanswered. This era ends when Bitcoin regains its long-term transferring common, when institutional flows flip optimistic, and when the choices market stops pricing for defense.
Till then, the market is able to restrict the upside, and endurance is required. Even when institutional buyers say it is bearish and hold shopping for.