Bitcoin may emerge as a long-term winner if world authorities verify the existence of non-human intelligence, even when the fast results trigger extreme monetary shocks.
Over the weekend, stories emerged that Helen McCaw, a former senior analyst on the Financial institution of England, had urged Governor Andrew Bailey to contemplate contingency plans for a situation through which the US authorities, or another trusted authority, releases conclusive proof that humanity isn’t alone.
In her evaluation, the danger goes past market disruption. It is a fast confidence shock that might spill over from asset costs to the plumbing of on a regular basis life, disrupting installations and funds, and, within the worst case situation, inflicting civil unrest.
ontological shock
McCaw bases his argument on “ontological shock.” The time period is more and more used within the threat business to explain the destabilizing results of sudden modifications in shared actuality.
On this situation, collective psychological disorientation leads on to materials financial penalties.
McCaw argued within the Sol Basis’s white paper that this case may result in a pathway to monetary instability.
She wrote that if disclosure of UAPs (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) signifies “energy and intelligence larger than any authorities,” it may undermine the legitimacy and belief that markets and banking techniques silently depend on.
Based on her:
“Affirmation, and even hypothesis, {that a} new know-how exists will create an exogenous shock to world monetary markets. Human reactions, whether or not as a consequence of hypothesis or new information, can have an instantaneous impression on these markets.”
Given these dangers, she argues that the Financial institution of England must “take motion” to handle the monetary stability dangers related to disclosure.
Though the premise is much like science fiction, the cultural context has modified over the previous yr.
By the use of background, U.S. lawmakers, together with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, are more and more calling for presidency transparency concerning UAPs.
Nevertheless, regardless of high-level political involvement, it appears unlikely that such info can be made public any time quickly. On Polymarket, a cryptocurrency prediction market platform, a deal titled “Will the US Affirm the Existence of Aliens by 2027?” was signed. It’s buying and selling at about 13 cents, implying a 13% chance.
However, McCaw’s argument is basically that the elevated consideration and high-impact penalties of such recognition throughout the group justify advance planning.
From such a background, crypto slate modeled how an “ontological shock” situation would play out for Bitcoin.
quick time period impact
When this tail occasion happens, the fast query for buyers is: What’s going to break first?
McCaw raised the likelihood that if folks “query the legitimacy of their authorities” and lose belief in authorities belongings, they might flip to digital currencies like Bitcoin.
Nevertheless, market mechanics recommend a distinct preliminary response. Alien publicity is basically an uncertainty shock, and uncertainty shocks commerce in two distinct phases.
In Section 1, which may final from a couple of hours to a couple days, the market faces the issue of “promoting what could be bought.”
Within the first interval after a dependable, reality-rewriting announcement, the market usually doesn’t behave like a rational low cost machine. They act like threat managers and margin takers.
Three causes recommend that Bitcoin is susceptible immediately, even when it later advantages from the “mistrust hedge” narrative.
First, Bitcoin is liquid 24/7, which is the primary stress valve. When inventory markets shut down and information headlines break, cryptocurrencies are the place merchants all over the world can immediately cut back their publicity. As such, BTC doesn’t routinely turn into a protected haven, however a frequent supply of “on the spot liquidity.”
Second, correlation will increase when everybody avoids threat collectively.
The IMF has repeatedly documented that the interconnection between crypto and inventory markets has turn into stronger. Because of this market returns and volatility spillovers can improve, particularly throughout occasions of stress, and cut back diversification whenever you want it most.
Third, volatility doesn’t contain civilizational-scale surprises.
As of mid-January 2026, the VIX (an indicator of the implicit volatility of US shares and probably the most watched available in the market) is within the mid-10% vary. If volatility is revised upward sharply as a consequence of disclosure, threat limits can be tightened, VaR (worth in danger) shocks will unfold, and leveraged positions can be unwound.
In such moments, the “digital gold” narrative usually loses out by way of “cut back your whole publicity now.”
Frankly, the preliminary transfer is prone to be risk-off and Bitcoin can be handled as excessive beta by many macro desks.
Lengthy-term impression on gold and Bitcoin
It is solely in Section 2, which may final anyplace from a couple of weeks to a couple months, that buying and selling strikes into what McCaw envisions as a “belief premium.”
After the preliminary scramble, the query modifications from “What’s a liquid?” “What’s authorized?”
If affirmation of non-human intelligence is interpreted as proof that governments should not totally clear or in management, sections of the general public and investor class could start to demand belongings which are much less intently related to state credibility.
That’s the place Bitcoin may plausibly transition from “bought for liquidity” to “purchased for exit choices.”
On this case, this disclosure may create an enduring distrust of economic establishments, forcing some buyers to hunt belongings which are borderless, self-custodial, and can’t be claimed by any financial institution.
As soon as capital controls and emergency measures turn into a part of the political response, even for a brief time frame, the narrative of “censorship resistance” turns into extra than simply branding. It turns into a threat administration operate.
However McCaw makes an vital level about conventional safe-haven belongings like gold.
She means that the gold shortage narrative will face theoretical challenges if the market assumes that spaceflight capabilities may increase the provision of the dear metallic (via asteroid mining or new supplies science).
In that context, Bitcoin faces no such bodily dangers as a result of its shortage is mathematically enforced. Primarily, the 21 million laborious cap for prime crypto protocols stays unchanged.
Subsequently, in a world the place the bodily constraints of the universe are immediately up for debate, the inflexible and unwavering certainty of Bitcoin’s code may command an enormous premium.