Bitcoin (BTC) hit almost $98,000 in a single day, however has risen about 5.5% in current buying and selling to settle round $96,000. This rally has reignited a well-known query: Is that this a setup for a sustained rally above $100,000, or is it one other fragile push primarily based on a skinny order e-book and positioning recreation?
Market capitalization $1.91 trillion
24 hour quantity $46.76 billion
Finest ever $126,173.18
Glassnode’s newest evaluation reveals a fragile image by which mechanical positioning has pushed current actions whereas broader structural calls for stay uneven and liquidity stays compressed.
Provide meets demand at a essential threshold
Present costs sit inside a dense cluster of long-term holder provide constructed up between April and July 2025, starting from roughly $93,000 to $110,000.
Glassnode’s cost-based distribution heatmap reveals this overhead provide zone the place restoration has repeatedly stalled since November. With every try, they face new promoting pressures and are unable to keep up the structural restoration in costs.
This area has persistently acted as a transition barrier, separating correction phases from sustained bull markets.
The associated fee foundation for short-term holders is now $98,300, reflecting the common entry worth for current consumers. Glassnord factors out that traditionally, regaining and sustaining this stage indicators a transition from a correction section to a extra sturdy uptrend.
Costs proceed to want to consolidate above $98,300 to revive confidence and lay the foundations for sustained momentum.
The habits of long-term holders offers the context for the quantity of oblique provide that the market should soak up. Lengthy-term holders stay internet sellers, however the distribution charge has slowed considerably from the aggressive promoting seen all through the second half of 2025.
Glassnode studies that long-term holders are presently realizing a internet revenue of roughly 12,800 BTC per week, which is down from the cycle peak of over 100,000 BTC per week.
This suppression means that revenue taking, whereas nonetheless lively, is far much less aggressive than in earlier distribution phases.
The move of funds from institutional buyers has stabilized and the spot market has improved.
The establishment’s stability sheet move has accomplished a whole reset.
Internet inflows have stabilized after a chronic interval of outflows throughout spot ETFs, corporates, and authorities entities. Spot ETFs turned optimistic and re-established themselves as main marginal consumers.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded internet inflows of $1.5 billion in January, with almost $1.6 billion recorded between January 13 and 14, based on information from Pharcyde Buyers.
Spot market motion has develop into constructive. Cumulative quantity delta measurements on Binance and basic exchanges have returned to a buy-dominated regime, reflecting a shift away from sustained sell-side strain.
Coinbase was essentially the most constant supply of gross sales all through the combination, but it surely considerably slowed down its distribution.
Whereas spot participation has not but proven the sustained, aggressive accumulation sometimes seen in a full development growth section, the transition to a internet lengthy place signifies a constructive structural change.
The machine strikes on a skinny quantity
A brief liquidation mechanically strengthened the push into the $96,000 space, but it surely unfolded on comparatively skinny derivatives buying and selling volumes.
Glassnode notes that futures buying and selling volumes stay properly under the lively buying and selling seen via most of 2025.
This breakout occurred in a comparatively illiquid atmosphere the place modest positioning modifications triggered disproportionately massive worth reactions. As a sensible matter, it did not take plenty of new capital to power quick sellers out of the market and drive costs up via resistance.
This dynamic is immediately associated to liquidity points seen within the order e-book. Whole market depth was 2%, down about 30% from its 2025 excessive, information supplier Kaiko stated.
On Binance particularly, 1% depth peaked at over $600 million in October 2025, however fell under $400 million by December twentieth. Thinner books amplify worth actions and make the tape extra delicate to massive flows and strategic positioning.
Blockchain information provides texture to this story.
On December thirty first, market maker Wintermute internet deposited 1,213 BTC to Binance, with transfers concentrated in periods of low exercise.
Making massive trade deposits throughout skinny hours will increase the danger of getting a significant impression on the tape, particularly if the e-book lacks depth.
Nevertheless, operational framing has its limits. Though a extensively circulated declare on December thirtieth alleged “multi-billion greenback manipulation,” the entire quantity of on-chain transfers talked about was lower than $30 million.
The sharp intraday motion is healthier defined by a mixture of structural weak spot and stop-hunting slightly than a provable adjustment scheme.
$100,000 as a mechanical attractor
The $100,000 stage is on the convergence level the place the fee foundation, choice publicity, and vendor hedge match. Coin Metrics notes that decision curiosity is concentrated across the $100,000 strike worth with an expiration date in late January.
In response to a report from Glassnode, sellers are shorting Gamma at about $95,000 to $104,000, doubtlessly growing the upside as they hedge by shopping for spot or futures if the value rises.
In a brief gamma atmosphere, hedge flows won’t be able to soak up worth fluctuations. As a substitute, they strengthen them.
This construction creates fragile stability. Volatility might stay low whereas costs are suppressed, however as soon as momentum is constructed, strikes usually tend to speed up than weaken.
Spot buying and selling is going down round $95,000 to $96,000, with worth shifting into the quick gamma zone, the place sustained motion supported by quantity is more likely to set off directional hedge flows.
Possibility exercise close to the $100,000 strike highlights conditional upside expectations. For brief-to-medium maturities as much as roughly three months, purchase name premiums considerably exceed quick name premiums, indicating sturdy demand for near-term upside threat.
In distinction, longer maturities confirmed the other motion, with richer name premiums on the skin of the curve getting used as alternatives to promote on high.
This break up means that the market is bracing for the potential for retesting the $100,000 space, whereas on the identical time being hesitant to proceed to simply accept above that stage for an extended time frame.
Volatility is deferred, not resolved
Implied volatility stays low throughout the curve, with Deribit’s DVOL measurements hovering across the 40s.
Nevertheless, this interpretation masks an underlying vulnerability. Skew continues to be pricing in draw back threat, and a 25-delta skew continues to be biased towards places, particularly at intermediate and longer maturities.
This displays a market that’s snug with sustaining publicity, however unwilling to go with out insurance coverage.
The coexistence of low volatility and detrimental skew highlights an necessary stress. Though individuals don’t anticipate a right away decline, they proceed to pay for uneven safety.
Volatility will increase step by step with maturity, suggesting that uncertainty is allotted to time slightly than particular short-term elements, according to a market anticipating short-term stability whereas being uncovered to potential dangers.
$100,000 check
If Bitcoin is certainly poised for a sustained rally above $100,000, two situations want to return into place.
First, the value must get better and maintain above its short-term holder price foundation of $98,300, permitting current consumers to recoup their features and decreasing the motivation to promote on a rebound.
Second, we have to concurrently enhance liquidity and move. Whereas ETF inflows remaining optimistic offers one sign, stabilizing depth is extra necessary. If Binance’s 1% depth regime under $400 million continues, the market will stay weak to the whip.
Revenue-taking has cooled, distributions from long-term holders have slowed, and typical late-cycle euphoria indicators are not flashing purple. Nevertheless, liquidity vulnerabilities introduce wildcards.
The order e-book is noticeably thinner in comparison with the October highs, and huge flows in periods of low exercise might lead to unusually massive tape actions.
The $100,000 stage is necessary as a result of it’s the place a number of structural forces converge, together with price base, choice publicity, and vendor hedging, and it turns into a pure attraction as soon as situations stabilize.
Whether or not Bitcoin can regain and maintain $100,000 relies upon much less on the story and extra on whether or not the market can rebuild depth whereas sustaining optimistic momentum. The indicator is inexperienced, distribution strain has eased, and institutional demand is secure.
Nevertheless, the mechanism stays fragile and up to date actions have occurred in skinny volumes with mechanical help from quick protecting.
That is the present scenario, the place even modest capital can create important motion, however deeper subsequent accumulation is required to attain sustainability.