On January thirteenth, one Bitcoin (BTC) miner obtained a reward for the complete block, charging 3.125 BTC and costs equal to almost $300,000 at present costs.
Winnings weren’t distributed among the many hundreds of pool contributors. In an trade dominated by industrial-scale mining operations that require huge quantities of computing energy, one tackle obtained the entire dividends.
However a lone miner can nonetheless discover a block not as a result of the chances are of their favor, however as a result of the chances do not care about expectations.
Arithmetic is merciless. In line with the Hash Fee Index, Bitcoin’s community hash price is roughly 1,024 exahashes per second as of mid-January 2026. This quantities to roughly 1.024 billion terahashes competing to resolve every block.
A hobbyist miner operating a 6 TH/s ASIC has a roughly 1 in 170 million probability of encountering every block try. The anticipated wait time to discover a single block at that hashrate is over 3,000 years.
Nonetheless, solo wins proceed to seem, with confirmed solo blocks hitting the chain each few weeks.
Mining is a Poisson course of (a statistical mannequin of random occasions that happen over time), the place every trial is an unbiased, memoryless lottery ticket. Hashrate determines the likelihood per block, however the likelihood doesn’t pressure easy distribution on brief timescales.
The likelihood {that a} miner operating a 6 TH/s miner for one month will discover at the least one block is 0.0025%. Nearly zero, however not zero. Multiply that small likelihood by tens of hundreds of particular person miners world wide, and somebody usually hits the jackpot.
Solo mining tracker knowledge compiled by Bennet exhibits 22 verified solo blocks mined over the previous 12 months, with a mean interval between wins of 15.6 days.
How solo mining will really work in 2026
Most of your solo wins come by way of solo mining providers like Solo CKPool. It offers stratum work coordination, permitting particular person miners to compete for the rewards of a whole block with out having to run the complete stack themselves.
CKPool explicitly states that its service is “not a pool” within the financial sense, as there isn’t a distribution of rewards amongst contributors. Every miner’s hashrate competes independently for the general block reward.
If a miner linked to Solo CKPool finds a sound block, the Coinbase transaction will probably be paid on to that miner’s tackle, minus a 2% service payment. At present, solely CKPool exhibits round 20,950 customers providing a hashrate of round 188 Petahash.
The brand new mannequin runs its personal solo pool software program, represented by Public Pool within the Umbrel ecosystem. This open-source utility permits miners to run solo mining swimming pools utilizing their very own nodes and hold the complete rewards in the event that they hit a block. There are not any service charges, however extra technical setup is required.
What all fashions have in frequent is that miners obtain the complete block reward for profitable searches, relatively than being prorated primarily based on contributed hashrate over time.
Both the miner wins all the things or nothing.
Odds are worse than anticipated, however higher than nothing
At Bitcoin’s present community hash price of roughly 1,024 EH/s, the likelihood {that a} miner finds a selected block is the same as its hash price divided by the community’s whole hash price.
For a 6 TH/s machine, that is roughly 1/170 millionth per block.
The anticipated time to discover a block is inversely proportional to its likelihood. Since Bitcoin generates a block roughly each 10 minutes, a 6 TH/s miner can be anticipated to take roughly 3,247 years to discover a single block.
Even a extra highly effective 200 TH/s ASIC takes about 97 years to succeed in 1 TH/s. Even with 1 Petahash, the anticipated latency decreases to 19.5 years.
Nevertheless, anticipated time will not be the identical as likelihood over a time period. The likelihood {that a} 6 TH/s miner will discover at the least one block in a 12 months is roughly 0.0308%. However out of hundreds of miners operating comparable setups, just a few miners can beat that odds.
That is why solo mining wins are typically concentrated round average hashrate ranges. Miners operating 2.3 Petahash, which is way beneath industrial scale however far above passion {hardware}, have roughly an 11% probability of discovering a block inside a 12 months.
If there are a enough variety of miners inside that vary, total wins turn out to be predictable, even when particular person miners are unlikely to succeed.
Current solo wins present upkeep of sample
Solo block discoveries have maintained a gentle tempo over the previous 12 months. Block 920,440, mined on October 23, 2025, was awarded to miners within the public pool, accumulating 3.125 BTC and roughly 0.016 BTC in charges.
Block 924,569 on November 21, 2025 delivered roughly 3.146 BTC to particular person miners working by way of the CKPool infrastructure.
One dramatic instance occurred on November 23, 2025. On this case, a miner operating at solely 6 TH/s, going through odds of roughly 1 in 170 million per block, efficiently discovered a block by way of CKPool and obtained the complete reward.
FutureBit, which makes compact Bitcoin mining units designed for dwelling use, has recorded a number of solo wins with Apollo miners. These units usually run within the single or low double digit terahash vary, too small to generate significant pool rewards, however it’s nonetheless potential to search out the occasional block.
Bennet’s Solo Mining Tracker aggregates verified solo blocks throughout CKPool, public swimming pools, FutureBit units, and different identified solo setups, exhibiting 22 solo blocks discovered previously 12 months, a rise of 29% year-over-year.
The typical time between solo wins throughout all tracked setups was 15.6 days, with the longest drought lasting 54 days. The full rewards distributed to solo miners throughout that interval will probably be roughly 69.35 BTC.
Why solo mining exists within the first place
The financial rationale for solo mining is weak when optimized for secure earnings.
Pool mining pays out proportionally to the hashrate contributed, smoothing variance into predictable payouts. Miners who contribute 200 TH/s to a pool obtain an approximate share of that pool’s rewards, that are delivered repeatedly.
A 200 TH/s solo miner instantly obtained 3.125 BTC plus charges after years of receiving nothing.
Though the anticipated values are the identical and each approaches converge to the identical long-term return per unit of hashrate, the dispersion profiles are fairly totally different. Industrial miners have debt service, working prices, energy contracts, and wish predictable revenues.
Variations are dangers that can’t be hedged.
Solo mining persists as a result of a subset of miners evaluates the variance itself. Some folks function mining {hardware} as a passion or ideological endeavor relatively than a profit-maximizing enterprise.
The psychological attraction of probably getting a full block outweighs the just about certainty of getting nothing. Some deal with solo mining like a lottery, which is economically irrational primarily based on anticipated worth, however defends it as leisure or a tail-risk gamble.
Improved infrastructure has additionally lowered technical boundaries. Working a solo mining operation in 2015 required working an entire Bitcoin node, configuring Stratum software program, and managing community connections.
With CKPool and public swimming pools, configuration is so simple as specifying your mining {hardware} in a URL or putting in a plug-and-play app. The simpler solo mining turns into, the extra miners will strive solo mining, and the extra seen the solo mining wins will probably be.
The block you simply hit
The January thirteenth block represents the newest knowledge level in a longtime sample.
One tackle obtained a full block reward value almost $300,000 at a Bitcoin worth of about $94,000. The payout construction means that the wins got here from a single mining infrastructure. Nevertheless, with out public requests from miners or verified pool tags inside Coinbase, the precise configuration stays imprecise.
If a miner makes use of Solo CKPool, the online cost quantity excluding service charges will probably be 98% of the whole. If it got here by way of a public pool or correct solo infrastructure, miners stored the complete quantity.
Both means, this win proves that solo mining continues to work as predicted by likelihood. Principally quiet, typically spectacular.
The community produces 144 extra blocks right this moment. The overwhelming majority of compensation goes to industrial mining operations. However someplace within the movement of that block, one other solo minor will finally hit.
The percentages haven’t improved. The issue stage has not decreased. The community continues to develop. However likelihood remains to be detached to scale, and lightning nonetheless happens.