- Polymarket odds that the US acquires Greenland rose from 7% to greater than 21% in two weeks.
- Kalsi signifies there’s a 46% probability that Trump will seize elements of Greenland.
- President Trump tied Greenland to direct tariffs, and the market is at present unstable.
The market not treats Greenland as a joke commerce. In polymarkets, contracts asking whether or not the US will management Greenland by 2027 rose to about 21-22% this week from 7-8% firstly of the yr.
The deal consists of greater than $14 million, making it one of many largest energetic bets on the platform. Up to now two weeks, two giant wallets have seen a complete improve of about $300,000 in funds on the “Sure” aspect, every securing a possible payout of practically $750,000 if the outcomes are successful.
Kalsi tells completely different tales alongside the identical traces. The chances are nicely above the polymarket at practically 46%, with little change from the earlier week. This hole shouldn’t be about seriousness, however slightly factors to a disagreement over timing and authorized course of. Merchants are not pricing this in as a zero chance.
Tariffs flip politics right into a catalyst for commerce
President Trump imposed direct tariffs on Greenland. The ten% tariffs on items from eight European international locations will start on February 1st and rise to 25% in June until there’s a cope with Greenland. Polymarket exhibits Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany, the UK and France have a 40% probability of going through new tariffs subsequent month. That is not summary geopolitics, however an outdated macro set off.
Europe’s response stays defensive. EU international locations have joined Denmark in suspending commerce negotiations and getting ready retaliatory measures focusing on companies and finance, the place the US has a surplus.
European allies rally behind Denmark
Greenland has change into a spotlight of NATO’s Arctic posture, with a number of European allies sending small navy groups to take part in Danish-led workout routines. Though the deployment is basically symbolic and includes restricted personnel, Denmark continues to take major accountability by its Arctic Power, which numbers round 100 to 150 folks. Different NATO allies have additionally despatched liaison officers or are contemplating becoming a member of amid broader Arctic safety issues.
Commerce pressures are including to the burden, with tariffs already in place and better tiers anticipated later this yr. Europe lacks the navy energy to instantly substitute U.S. help, and it’s estimated that filling the hole will value practically $1 trillion over the long run. This weak point strengthens the US negotiating place and retains the Greenland timeline alive out there.
Curiously, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen mentioned Europe wouldn’t be “blackmailed” into surrendering. He added that strengthening Arctic safety as a standard curiosity throughout the Atlantic is a precedence.
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