- ZachXBT traced the RAIN pockets to DOP and TOMI related to alleged fraudster Moshe Hogeg.
- RAIN is valued at $8.8 billion, however has a TVL of simply $27 million and annual protocol charges of $1 million.
- Uniswap V3 wallets linked to deployers increase issues about intentional worth manipulation.
Blockchain researcher ZachXBT issued a warning to keep away from Rain Protocol. Rain Protocol is a prediction market challenge that lately reached a market cap of $8.8 billion regardless of having minimal precise customers, restricted product traction, and on-chain deal with hyperlinks to previous tasks related to fraud allegations.
“I like to recommend avoiding Rain Protocol in any respect prices,” writes ZachXBT. “As a prediction market, RAIN has few customers, minimal product traction, no notable backers, and a crew with little expertise within the business.”
Though this allegation has not been confirmed in courtroom, the on-chain proof offered by ZachXBT has raised severe issues all through the cryptocurrency group.
What the on-chain proof reveals
ZachXBT tracked the RAIN crew’s pockets addresses and found a stream of funds connecting them to Gems’ scorching wallets and deposit addresses on exchanges beforehand utilized by failed tasks equivalent to Information Possession Protocol and TOMI.
This connection was recognized by means of a mud transaction on the identical day in October 2025, suggesting attainable overlap in groups throughout tasks.
Related particulars:
- RAIN deployer deal with linked to TOMI crew multisig by means of shared pockets exercise
- Related addresses hint DOP multisig again to transactions in December 2025
- Uniswap V3 liquidity positions linked to deployer pockets raises issues of worth manipulation
- Spot transfers allegedly obfuscated by means of Gems scorching pockets exercise
TOMI, DOP, and Sirin Labs all hint again to Israeli entrepreneur Moshe Hogeg, who was detained on fraud costs in 2021 and accused by legislation enforcement in 2023 of a $290 million fraudulent crypto scheme.
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Analysis points
Based on DeFiLlama information, RAIN’s complete worth is pegged at $27.2 million on Arbitrum and is comprised completely of its personal illiquid native token. Annual protocol charges are roughly $1 million. The challenge facilitated a $100 million liquidity injection, cut up between $50 million in USDT and $50 million in RAIN tokens.
The prediction market, which generates $1 million in annual charges with a valuation of $8.8 billion, has no precedent corresponding to Calci or Polymarket, essentially the most established platforms within the area.
RAIN’s worth has doubled from $0.007 on Might twenty fifth to $0.014 now. ZachXBT defined that worth fluctuations seem like manipulated by means of on-chain exercise linked to deployers.
Patterns flagged by ZachXBT
Gems.vip, the launchpad that hosted RAIN and DOP, seems to be getting ready to launch one other challenge known as Kai Platform, which lately introduced it has acquired DOP. It stays unclear the place the $162 million DOP raised within the 2024 token sale went, with quite a few retail investor complaints circulating on social media.
Zacks XBT mentioned, “I don’t suggest buying and selling below any circumstances” with tasks that have interaction in aggressive worth manipulation.
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